Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 42 | 32.1 | 9.5% | 294 | 2.55% |
| 10-19 | 43 | 53.7 | 15.7% | 484 | 3.56% |
| 20-29 | 61 | 74.1 | 22.2% | 687 | 3.28% |
| 30-39 | 70 | 59.7 | 17.8% | 550 | 4.04% |
| 40-49 | 50 | 49.4 | 14% | 431 | 4.12% |
| 50-59 | 41 | 34.9 | 10.4% | 322 | 2.56% |
| 60-69 | 25 | 21.9 | 6.2% | 192 | 1.67% |
| 70+ | 11 | 13.4 | 4.1% | 126 | 1.2% |
| All ages | 343 | 339.6 | 100% | 3088 | 2.95% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12 | 23936 | 68708 | 643 | 168 | 2877 |
| Jan 13 | 24516 | 69113 | 645 | 169 | 3215 |
| Jan 14 | 24853 | 69452 | 645 | 169 | 3332 |
| Jan 15 | 25058 | 69591 | 645 | 169 | 3190 |
| Jan 16 | 25290 | 69667 | 646 | 169 | 3100 |
| Jan 17 | 25492 | 69878 | 648 | 169 | 3028 |
| Jan 18 | 25835 | 70166 | 651 | 169 | 3088 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12 | 15264 | 39805 | 626 | 152 | 1317 |
| Jan 13 | 15608 | 40024 | 626 | 152 | 1523 |
| Jan 14 | 15776 | 40160 | 626 | 153 | 1593 |
| Jan 15 | 15877 | 40254 | 626 | 153 | 1631 |
| Jan 16 | 15965 | 40298 | 628 | 153 | 1631 |
| Jan 17 | 16076 | 40384 | 630 | 154 | 1610 |
| Jan 18 | 16292 | 40534 | 630 | 154 | 1773 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 25 | 15.9 | 7.3% | 130 | 1.68% |
| 10-19 | 28 | 29.7 | 13.9% | 246 | 2.93% |
| 20-29 | 30 | 33.6 | 17.4% | 308 | 4.33% |
| 30-39 | 41 | 39.7 | 19.6% | 348 | 4.14% |
| 40-49 | 41 | 33.6 | 15.9% | 282 | 3.63% |
| 50-59 | 29 | 23.1 | 11.7% | 208 | 2.14% |
| 60-69 | 16 | 16.0 | 7.5% | 133 | 1.58% |
| 70+ | 5 | 13.6 | 6.5% | 116 | 1.63% |
| All ages | 216 | 205.4 | 100% | 1773 | 2.74% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12 | 11416 | 26504 | 490 | 122 | 740 |
| Jan 13 | 11581 | 26627 | 491 | 122 | 860 |
| Jan 14 | 11671 | 26733 | 491 | 122 | 872 |
| Jan 15 | 11764 | 26793 | 493 | 122 | 868 |
| Jan 16 | 11827 | 26843 | 494 | 122 | 831 |
| Jan 17 | 11887 | 26874 | 496 | 122 | 809 |
| Jan 18 | 11978 | 26956 | 496 | 122 | 844 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 8.9 | 8.8% | 74 | 1.36% |
| 10-19 | 18 | 15.3 | 14.6% | 123 | 2.27% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 15.0 | 14.7% | 124 | 2.74% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 16.6 | 17.2% | 145 | 2.67% |
| 40-49 | 14 | 13.3 | 13.6% | 115 | 2.31% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 13.4 | 14.5% | 122 | 1.8% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 8.9 | 8.8% | 74 | 1.17% |
| 70+ | 9 | 7.4 | 7.9% | 67 | 1.06% |
| All ages | 91 | 98.7 | 100% | 844 | 1.87% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12 | 26587 | 82468 | 886 | 145 | 3951 |
| Jan 13 | 27435 | 82936 | 889 | 145 | 4394 |
| Jan 14 | 27780 | 83247 | 889 | 145 | 4260 |
| Jan 15 | 28093 | 83500 | 889 | 145 | 4174 |
| Jan 16 | 28345 | 83592 | 890 | 145 | 4014 |
| Jan 17 | 28645 | 83964 | 893 | 146 | 3885 |
| Jan 18 | 29151 | 84427 | 907 | 146 | 4069 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 70 | 58.3 | 12.5% | 508 | 4.3% |
| 10-19 | 97 | 91.4 | 18.9% | 770 | 4.65% |
| 20-29 | 90 | 86.0 | 19.6% | 799 | 3.75% |
| 30-39 | 80 | 74.4 | 15.9% | 647 | 4.76% |
| 40-49 | 72 | 64.0 | 13.4% | 545 | 4.01% |
| 50-59 | 42 | 46.3 | 10.2% | 415 | 2.93% |
| 60-69 | 34 | 26.7 | 5.7% | 231 | 1.63% |
| 70+ | 21 | 15.9 | 3.8% | 154 | 1.18% |
| All ages | 506 | 463.0 | 100% | 4069 | 3.44% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12 | 82016 | 465742 | 2320 | 433 | 8924 |
| Jan 13 | 84239 | 467204 | 2324 | 433 | 10457 |
| Jan 14 | 86128 | 468494 | 2334 | 433 | 11522 |
| Jan 15 | 87004 | 469354 | 2339 | 433 | 11722 |
| Jan 16 | 98994 | 470413 | 2341 | 433 | 22913 |
| Jan 17 | 101917 | 471857 | 2351 | 433 | 25180 |
| Jan 18 | 103298 | 473441 | 2362 | 434 | 26461 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 241 | 333.3 | 11% | 2911 | 4.84% |
| 10-19 | 258 | 471.9 | 15.4% | 4075 | 5.73% |
| 20-29 | 194 | 667.6 | 20.9% | 5528 | 5.32% |
| 30-39 | 247 | 617.4 | 18.9% | 5013 | 6.55% |
| 40-49 | 211 | 470.7 | 14.5% | 3849 | 5.87% |
| 50-59 | 114 | 333.0 | 10.2% | 2707 | 4.13% |
| 60-69 | 69 | 182.6 | 5.6% | 1490 | 2.73% |
| 70+ | 47 | 109.1 | 3.2% | 857 | 1.74% |
| All ages | 1381 | 3190.0 | 100% | 26461 | 4.84% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12 | 1279094 | 3917361 | 57145 | 11702 | 135694 |
| Jan 13 | 1304277 | 3931633 | 57291 | 11708 | 149087 |
| Jan 14 | 1322541 | 3944075 | 57387 | 11712 | 152411 |
| Jan 15 | 1338214 | 3954446 | 57484 | 11712 | 152224 |
| Jan 16 | 1380799 | 3960777 | 57554 | 11712 | 178890 |
| Jan 17 | 1400338 | 3969582 | 57823 | 11755 | 185396 |
| Jan 18 | 1415098 | 3982324 | 58048 | 11825 | 195022 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1862 | 2044.1 | 9.8% | 19076 | 2.98% |
| 10-19 | 2443 | 3083.4 | 14.6% | 28482 | 3.76% |
| 20-29 | 1999 | 3907.3 | 17.9% | 34982 | 4.62% |
| 30-39 | 2526 | 3972.1 | 17.8% | 34721 | 4.59% |
| 40-49 | 2138 | 3262.1 | 14.7% | 28677 | 4.1% |
| 50-59 | 1780 | 2729.9 | 12.4% | 24183 | 2.97% |
| 60-69 | 1193 | 1744.3 | 7.8% | 15157 | 2% |
| 70+ | 799 | 1088.7 | 4.9% | 9473 | 1.48% |
| All ages | 14760 | 21864.1 | 100% | 195022 | 3.35% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-02-09 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 12803"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges